The Reality Check: How UK Immigration Changes Are Reshaping International Education

Rosa Matthews
Jun 16
4 min read

The numbers are in — and they paint a messy, often contradictory picture of how the UK is handling international students right now. It's not exactly a smooth ride — more like a bumpy journey with some surprise turns.

Sure, the government still talks about hitting that 600,000 international students per year goal by 2030, as laid out in the International Education Strategy. But let’s be honest — with the way things are going, it feels like they’re pressing the accelerator and the brake at the same time.

Let’s unpack this.

The Numbers Game: When Policy Meets Reality

January 2024 brought in major visa changes — specifically around dependants. And the fallout? Well, it was rough. Dependant visa approvals dropped a jaw-dropping 83% over 12 months. That’s from over 100,000 to just 18,411.

To put it another way: where we once had 5 dependants for every 20 students, we now have just 1. That’s a massive shift in who’s even able to come.

Countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Sri Lanka were hit the hardest — their student numbers tanked. These were the same places where students were most likely to bring family along.

Overall, study visa grants dropped from a high of 652,072 in June 2023 to 421,908. But here’s the thing — not everything is sliding downhill.

The Undergraduate Surprise

Against the odds, undergrad numbers are actually rising.

According to UCAS, international undergraduate applications for the 2025 cycle increased by 2.7%, reaching 118,800. That’s not just a recovery — it’s better than the pre-COVID numbers.

China added 2,540 applicants (an 8.9% increase), the US was up 11.7%, and Turkey jumped by a surprising 23.5%.

Even Nigeria, despite getting hit hard in the postgrad department, bounced back with a 7.5% rise in undergrad applications.

So what’s going on? Well, undergrads tend to be younger and less likely to bring family, so these visa changes aren’t hitting them as hard.

The Graduate Route Dilemma

The Graduate Route visa, launched in 2021, started strong. Since then, it’s helped 276,000 grads stay in the UK to work. Nearly half were from India.

Retention numbers improved, too — 57% of the 2020 and 2021 student cohorts were still here three years later, compared to 39% in 2019.

But now there’s a proposal to cut the route from two years to just 18 months. That might sound minor, but it’s not. Students spending £20k–£50k on a degree expect a fair shot at finding work afterward. Trimming their stay tells them the odds just got worse.

The Financial Pressure Cooker

Let’s talk money. From May 2025, students will need to show they’ve got £13,347 if they’re studying in London or £10,224 elsewhere — and that’s just living costs.

On top of that, the visa fee is now £510, and the Immigration Health Surcharge adds even more.

If you’re from a country with a weaker currency or lower income levels, these numbers are a deal-breaker.

The University Funding Reality

Here’s the bottom line: UK universities rely heavily on international students.

At Russell Group universities, they bring in 23% of total income. UCL? A whopping 65% of its tuition revenue is from international students.

With UK fees frozen at £9,250 and government grants shrinking, these institutions are using international fees to keep the lights on — and fund research.

That 2021/22 intake alone is expected to contribute £37.4 billion to the UK economy. In London, it’s a £9.6 billion boost.

The Compliance Tightrope

Unis are under pressure to comply with strict rules. 95% of students offered a place must actually enrol, and 90% need to finish their degrees.

Miss the mark and the university risks losing its sponsor licence.

The result? Admissions teams might start playing it safe — picking applicants who seem like "less risky" bets. That could seriously hurt diversity.

Subject and Source Market Shifts

In terms of what students are studying, Business and Management is still top (27%). Engineering and Tech are growing. Computing is solid. Psychology is gaining ground.

But some regions are cooling off. While China and the US are up, places like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia have dropped.

Lower-tier universities are being hit hardest — down 8–11% in international applications. Top-tier schools are holding on.

The Talent Drain Risk

There’s real worry that the UK is losing out on top talent.

Graduates often can’t find employers willing to sponsor them. They can’t freelance, and they can’t start their own businesses — not on a student visa.

More than 30% of postgrad students rely on credit or loans. With limited work options, they’re left struggling — and many take their skills elsewhere.

The Rebound Question

Here’s a glimmer of hope: early 2025 saw a 28% rise in main applicants compared to the same time in 2024. Nigeria was up 13%, India 5%.

That could mean demand is recovering. Possibly. We’ll need more time to know for sure.

What This Means Going Forward

It’s not a collapse, but it’s definitely a crossroads. Postgrad numbers are suffering. Undergrad demand is more stable.

The challenge? Aligning government goals with policy actions. Right now, the message is a bit all over the place.

The University and College Union warns that up to 10,000 jobs are at risk. £238 million in cuts have already been flagged.

Universities need to get strategic — focus on markets that are still growing (Turkey, Ireland, the US) and strengthen programmes with staying power (think STEM and business).

The UK still hosts 12% of the world’s international students. But if these mixed signals continue, that won’t last.